Dana taught me a wonderful lesson about making decisions in uncertain times. Dana is my niece. She’d just finished college and was looking for her first professional job. When I asked her what she wanted to do, she said she didn’t know. Then she smiled and said she didn’t need to know. All she needed to know was what she was going to do FIRST.

 

As a child of complex times, daughter of high tech, sister of globalization, and student of social disruption, she knew that a life journey could not depend on a single decision. At 22, she would not make a decision to determine the rest of her life. She would decide to shape the next stage in her life journey. She anticipated that at some point in the future, she would make other decisions to shape the emerging path of her life. Since then, she’s become a wife and mother, she finished a Master’s degree, and worked with people in all kinds of need. Her life continues to unfold—one FIRST decision at a time. 

 

Why is Dana’s insight a profound lesson?

 

The world around us is changing in ways we can neither predict nor control. Economic shocks shrink retirement funds and make jobs evaporate. Social changes shift relationships and cultural norms. Technology brings global news to your fingertips. Irrational violence disrupts peace and justice. Political wrangling confuses news with propaganda. Family violence, hunger, and homelessness in our neighborhoods, and unprecedented levels of drug and alcohol abuse, challenge our fundamental belief in the kindness and stability of our society. What does it mean to make decisions in such uncertain times? What does it mean to act responsibly when you cannot predict or control the consequences of your actions?

 

It means to decide what you’ll do FIRST. Though this may sound easier than making decisions for the rest of your life, it certainly is not. Every single moment, each decision, is a step into the unknown and the beginning of an unknowable path toward the future. Each one requires you to be awake and aware, to make sense of reality in relation to your beliefs and values, and to act with courage and determination, even in the midst of fear and unknowing. 

 

Be awake and aware.    Complexity researchers talk about dynamicalchange, and human systems dynamics borrows that concept to talk about change in human systems. Dynamical change is sometimes slow and smooth and at other times swift and surprising. There are many examples of dynamical change in human systems, but let’s just consider one—a developing friendship. A first meeting is a string of delights as two people discover each other. Over time, the pair become comfortable with each other and flow along with shared interests and activities. At some point, though, circumstances change, and an argument arises. The friendship moves into a dangerous time of conflict. Ultimately, the issue is resolved or forgotten, and the pair returns to a new level of shared experience and mutually satisfying relationship. Or it’s not resolved, and each person turns to existing relationships or moves to new ones. Like dynamical physical systems, this path is predictable in its general shape, but in any moment it is truly unpredictable. Does one ever know whether the next moment of friendship brings reassurance or surprise? No, so a good friend is constantly aware of circumstances, as well as the needs of self and other. 

 

My niece Dana expected dynamical change in her professional life. She knew that sometimes it would be smooth and other times it would be disrupted, and that she had no control over the long-term path. She also realized that, by staying aware, she could continually make decisions to influence the overall pattern of happiness and success. 

 

Make sense of reality. Everyone has heard, “Assumptions make an ass out of u and me.” This is especially true in times of complex change. When things are calm, it is easy to fall into habits of seeing and thinking. We can ignore the world around us because it is pretty much the same as it was before. Our expectations and assumptions are close enough to reality that we can get by. In times of complex change, though, we need to be critical of our own assumptions. We need to think carefully and clearly about what we see and what it means. We need to be in touch with others to test our assumptions. 
We need to challenge our own expectations so that our decisions and actions are connected to an ever-changing reality. 

 

Dana was realistic about her own knowledge, skills, and experience. She recognized that her FIRST choice would be the beginning of a learning journey that could build her capacity to engage with reality and prepare her for her NEXT job decision. 

 

Act with courage. Making a decision in the midst of uncertainty can feel like standing on the edge of cliff and stepping off into empty space. We don’t know what the future holds. We don’t know how others will respond to our actions, and we have no idea what other factors are shaping the future. Each moment and each choice holds the potential for boredom, excitement, or devastation.  We never know. Nevertheless, we must act. To stand in inaction, frozen in fear of the unknown, is to lose the opportunity to engage in the learning and growth of life. 

 

Dana’s smile let me know that she was ready and eager to step off the cliff and into the unknown. She was sure that whatever surprises the future held, she would meet them with open eyes, thoughtful meaning making, and sufficient courage to thrive on the shifting complex landscape of her tomorrow. 

 

Some people are born with the capacity to see and influence surprising dynamical patterns of change. Others learn these skills through the school of trial and error. Both can find theoretical guidance to engage with emerging changes in society, business, personal relationships, and politics. The theory, methods, models, and tools of human systems dynamics are designed to support this journey toward individual mastery in complex times. In our classes, webinars, and HSDP certification program, we introduce simple, powerful ways for individuals and groups to continually make the FIRST decision of the rest of their lives, and the next one, and the next one. For more information about human systems dynamics and our HSDP certification training, visit our website at www.hsdinstitute.org or email info@hsdinstitute.org.