As change became the organizational challenge of the 20th century, variability is emerging as the challenge of the 21st.  All of our clients, from federal agencies to international businesses to non-profits of all sizes, are dealing with the challenges of variability.  

Variability is the quality, state, or degree of being changeable.

Variability is to change what change was to stability.  You might think of it as changing change.  Not only must you deal with the present situation, but at the same time you have to worry about a potentially different situation of the future. 

Climate provides us a perfect example of the challenges of variability, and you see the implications in the newspaper every day.  Climate change used to be seen as an overwhelming challenge, but on a day-to-day basis it may not seem to be much of a problem.  The change is slow enough that we can expect to have plenty of time to adjust.  Maybe we won’t even notice that the temperature moves up some percentage of a degree every year.  It happens, and we have plenty of time to adjust before the next incremental change happens.  On a systemic level, the slow increase may lead to disaster, but on the local scale it poses little risk in the short term.

Climate variability, on the other hand, is already a real problem for many of us and in many parts of the world.  Today it is hot, tomorrow it is cold, and the next day is impossible to predict.  Today it is dry, tomorrow there is a deluge, and the next day I don’t know whether to take a sun hat or an umbrella with me when I leave home.  Variability makes planning and adaptation a daily, rather than an annual, event.  That is why it is such a challenge for individuals, organizations, and communities.

Economic variability makes it impossible for me to make reasoned decisions about retirement savings. 

Political variability makes it impossible for me to plan for international travel or commerce.

Variability in criminal activity and/or police response means that I can’t know where or when I can leave home and expect to be safe in my neighborhood.

Market variability means I hoard staples or avoid my favorite foods.

Professional variability means that I neither give nor expect loyalty in my place of business.

As our world becomes more complex, we can expect more variability in all parts of our personal and professional lives, so we should think about developing the skills we need to thrive, even when success criteria change in unexpected ways. Here are some tips for thriving in a variable environment. 

1. Maintain some slack in the system because you never know when you might need resources in a hurry.
2. Keep collecting and analyzing data, even when it looks like nothing is changing because a crisis may come when you least expect it.
3. Keep your options open because you may need to switch your strategies on a dime. 
4. Record and tell your stories because the variability of the past may give insight into variability of the future.
5. Learn and practice cycles of adaptive action (asking what?, so what?, now what?) because you can only respond if you are engaged with the environment. 
6. Allow yourself to be delighted by surprise because fighting it is not going to help.
7. Focus on the range and direction of change rather that the presence or absence of change because you can assume it will always be present. 
8. Use your network to see, understand, and respond because your problem solving strategies need to be as variable as the problems you want to solve.

We continue to teach adaptive action and build adaptive capacity for ourselves and our clients, but the quality, state, and degree of variation is always at least a half-step ahead.  Success will come when we take each next half-step with our eyes and minds open for surprise. 

Glenda Eoyang, Ph.D.
Executive Director
HSD Institute
www.hsdinstitute.org